Retail Scan Data

The NWPB works with IRI to provide a snapshot of the retail scene using retail scanner data. This data covers roughly 85% of retail grocery and includes traditional grocery stores with sales of $2 million or more annually, excluding some supercenters. The NWPB has had access to regional data for whole, mini and cut watermelon, but new in 2019, the Board invested in market-level data, drilling down to fifty different markets across the country to give an even more in-depth view of retail and consumer behavior. These markets represent over 208 million people in over 78 million households. The focus of the report below will be on the past 52-week period and how it compares to the prior period of the same length. If you have any questions or are looking for custom reports, please to reach out to Jason Hanselman at [email protected].

Retail Scan Data Report

Retail Ad Tracking

NWPB works with Numerator for Retail Ad Tracking. Numerator’s database is a great tool that allows us to go deeper into the retail space. It uses an ad-tracking system that ensures timely analysis of what the largest chains are promoting. The data goes into a database that can run reports and queries and includes images of the ads.

Below is the monthly report with the information shown throughout derived from the retail advertisement database provided by Numerator Promotions Intel, which gives NWPB the ability to see nearly real-time ad activity in the retail sector. In addition to images of every ad, NWPB also receives data that makes the following breakdowns possible. This report reflects the 52 weeks up to the report date versus the prior 52 week period with a similar breakdown focusing upon more recent times. If you have any questions, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].

RETAIL AD TRACKING REPORT

Budget Friendly Produce Study

In 2017, the NWPB funded a study through IRI to assess the cost of recommended daily servings of fresh produce. IRI completed an analysis to determine the lowest retail price for a consumer to purchase nine servings of fresh fruit and vegetables per day while having variety in his/her diet. Watermelon was the frontrunner for fruit throughout the study.

The research focused on these key questions:

  • What is the lowest average retail price for a consumer to purchase nine servings of fresh fruits and vegetables per day while having variety in his/her diet?
  • What is the lowest average retail price for nine servings by season?
  • What is the lowest average retail price for nine servings by region?

Parameters included:

  • Spring/summer is an aggregate of Q2 and Q3 2015.
  • Fall/winter is an aggregate of Q4 2015 and Q1 2016.
  • One basket was represented by nine servings of fruits and vegetables include four servings of fruit and five servings of vegetables.
  • Serving size is defined as a 1⁄2 cup of the edible portion of a product.

Total U.S. data showed that $6.69 was the average retail price per basket of fruit and vegetables. The fruit and vegetables purchases over the past 52 weeks, ending March 27, 2016, had an average price per serving of $0.71 for fruit and $0.77 for vegetables in the total U.S. Whole watermelon had the lowest cost per serving of fruit and whole potatoes had the lowest cost per serving of vegetables over the course of 52 weeks. When examining each IRI defined region over the annual time period, whole watermelon had the lowest cost per fruit serving in each region, while vegetables varied with whole potatoes consistently appearing as least expensive in most regions.

Retail prices for nine servings varied between seasons, ranging from $5.94 in the spring/summer to $7.62 in the fall/winter. Fruits ranged from $0.64 to $0.76 per serving. Watermelons, bananas and cantaloupe appeared in the top three least expensive fruits per serving in both seasons. Depending on region, other fruits mentioned included pineapple and other melons. The Great Lakes showed the lowest average price for nine servings for the year, with $5.91, followed by South Central, California, Mid-South, West, Southeast, and Plains. The North East was the highest with $7.10.

In summary, the most economical fruits and vegetables consistently appeared across both geographies and seasons. Cost of these important dietary components is significantly higher (28%) in fall/winter versus spring/summer. Regional impacts are less with the North East (6% higher than average) and the Great Lakes (12% lower).

If you have any questions or are interested in receiving the report, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].

Watermelon Price Responsiveness Study

In 2016, the NWPB funded a study through IRI to assess watermelon price responsiveness. The goal of this study was to provide the Board with a focused set of insights into past consumer demand response measures to examine how the watermelon segment was affected.

This study was targeted toward answering the following key business questions for watermelon items within the produce department:

  • How large are the competitive cost-to-consumer elasticities for watermelon items, and which competitive items have the largest influence on these brands?
  • What is the impact of short-term reductions, measured as discount elasticities, and of merchandising, measured as lifts, for watermelon items?
  • Is there substantial variation in shelf elasticity across channels, key food, drug or mass accounts for watermelon items?
  • Do base/promo elasticities differ during seasonal/non-seasonal periods?
  • Do base/promo elasticities differ during holiday/non-holiday periods?

Key findings:

  • Own base price is most important as price thresholds, gap thresholds and competitive effects are relatively small.
    • Most prices are already over the measurable base price thresholds.
    • IMPLICATION: Volume change will largely be impacted only by level of base price.
  • Watermelons respond stronger to promotion than base price change in grocery, but not everywhere.
    • Price discounting is a slightly stronger lever than base price.
    • In general, shoppers in the Southeast react less to base/promotional price changes while shoppers in the Northeast react much more strongly
    • IMPLICATION: Promotional support is powerful but needed less in the Southeast US than in other areas of the country.
    • Leverage knowledge of key promoted price thresholds.
  • Competitive analysis revealed a surprisingly strong interaction with oranges
    • Very strong $3.50 gap to oranges exists with whole watermelons in grocery.
    • Moderate general competitive interaction exists with oranges and bananas to cut watermelons in grocery.
    • IMPLICATION: Changes in retail price of oranges will affect watermelon sales.
  • Display can be a very effective vehicle to increase sales for mini and whole watermelons
    • Display support is very effective for mini and whole watermelons, but not cut watermelon
    • IMPLICATION: Reinforce the desire to create secondary display opportunities for mini and whole watermelons in grocery.
  • Key Seasonality differences exist based on in-season vs. out-of-season and holiday periods
    • Elasticity averages 21% higher in-season within grocery for no prep watermelons
    • Labor Day is a key holiday with higher lifts across all three product types in grocery
    • Memorial Day is also important for no prep but at the expense of minis in grocery
    • Relatively, promotion is not as impactful with the 4th of July holiday
    • IMPLICATION: Take advantage of higher demand and consumer response to promotion in high seasonal and holiday periods.

If you have any questions or are interested in receiving the report, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].