Retail Research
Retail Scan Data
The NWPB works with Circana to provide a snapshot of the retail scene using Retail Point of Sale (POS) data. This includes all types of watermelon, with attribution available for whole, mini and fresh cut. Circana’s multi-outlet (MULO) universe now includes 91% coverage across the U.S. with MULO+ in channels, including grocery, drug, mass market, military commissaries, club, and dollar stores, as well as e-commerce. Circana utilizes the data to project the remainder allowing for estimates of the total retail universe. The Board’s monthly Retail Scan Data Report looks at data from a national, regional, state and market-level perspective. If you have any questions or are looking for custom reports, please contact Jason Hanselman.
Retail Ad Report
NWPB utilizes the USDA-AMS National Retail Report to track advertised promotions at retail. The free database is a great tool that allows us to go deeper into the retail space using survey data from more than 500 retailers who comprise more than 29,000 individual stores. The data goes into a database that can run reports and queries at national and regional levels.
Below is the weekly report with the information provided by USDA-AMS. This report reflects the 52 weeks up to the report date versus the same period for the two prior terms. In addition to time-series data of the total number of stores advertising, seedless and mini watermelon pricing is available for both conventional and organic designations. If you have any questions, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].
Watermelon State of the Category: Baseline Study
By analyzing 2025 retail scan data, the NWPB developed a comprehensive study of retail sales trends in the watermelon category over a four-year period. The analysis includes retail dollars, volume, average selling price, distribution and sales velocity trends across the U.S. to provide actionable insights and key opportunities for marketers and retailers.
Marketers and Retailers Learn
- How retail trends have evolved since 2021, nationally and within regions
- Retail performance of whole and cut watermelon
- How seasonality impacts retail sales performance for watermelon
- The greater effectiveness of watermelon promotions compared to other melons
- The variability of watermelon pricing compared to other melons
How to Use
Turn the insights from this study into action by identifying high-impact retail trends shaping the watermelon category. Leverage market opportunities by value, distribution, and merchandising strategies with regional category dynamics, helping build momentum and support sustainable growth.
Omni-Channel Strategies for Category Growth
In 2025, the NWPB commissioned a study to understand how watermelon purchasing has evolved across retail channels and shopper segments. The findings reveal how today’s shoppers engage with watermelon across channels and provide insights marketers can use to strengthen their omni-channel strategies.
Marketers & Retailers Learn
- How watermelon shopping behaviors have shifted since 2021
- Which retail channels are fueling incremental sales and trips
- How Light, Medium, and Heavy shoppers contribute differently to category growth
- What demographic trends are reshaping watermelon’s core and emerging shopper groups
- Where to focus efforts to strengthen frequency, loyalty, and cross-channel engagement
How to Use
Leverage the insights from this study to refine omni-channel marketing strategies, tailor messaging and promotions to reach both core and emerging watermelon households, and position the category for growth across every retail channel.
Shopper Segmentation Study
In 2024, the Watermelon Board invested in a Segmentation Study using data from Numerator Insights, 52 weeks ending 06-30-2024 vs. 52 weeks ending 06-30-2023. The study established a shopper segmentation of watermelon purchasing households, answering questions should as:
- Is there a group of buyers that purchases a disproportionate amount of watermelon?
- If so, what impact does that group have on category purchase trends and growth?
Metrics include but are not limited to: penetration, spend per buyer, spend per trip, trips per buyer and equivalent volume metrics. Findings will be used for use in marketing, sales, and trade public relations.
Cost of Recommended Daily Servings of Produce
Cost of Recommended Daily Servings of Produce
In 2026, the NWPB funded a study with Circana to assess the cost of a half cup serving of various fresh produce items. Circana completed an analysis to determine the lowest retail price for a consumer to purchase nine half cup servings of fresh fruit and vegetables while maintaining variety in his/her daily diet. Watermelon was a frontrunner for fruit throughout the study.
The research focused on these key questions:
- What is the lowest average retail price for a consumer to purchase nine half cup servings of fresh fruits and vegetables per day while having variety in his/her diet?
- What is the lowest average retail price for nine servings by season?
- What is the lowest average retail price for nine servings by region?
Parameters included:
- Spring/Summer is an aggregate of Q2 and Q3 2026.
- Fall/Winter is an aggregate of Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
- Nine servings of fruits and vegetables include four servings of fruit and five servings of vegetables.
- Serving size is defined as a half cup of the edible portion of a product.
The fruit and vegetables purchased over the past 52 weeks ending July 12, 2026 had an average price per half cup serving of $0.74 for fruit and $0.98 for vegetables for total U.S. The average retail price for nine servings of fruits and vegetables (four servings of fruits and five servings of vegetables) was $7.90 during the latest 52 weeks ending July 12, 2026, across the country.
Whole watermelon had the lowest cost per half cup serving in fruit at 20 cents, while potatoes had the lowest cost per serving amongst vegetables at 22 cents over the prior 52 weeks. Circana breaks the country down into eight regions, and whole watermelon was the lowest cost per fruit in all eight. For vegetables, whole potatoes also had the lowest cost per serving in all eight regions.
Retail price for nine servings varied between seasons, ranging from $7.95 in Fall/Winter to $8.13 in Spring/Summer. Vegetables ranged from $0.20 to $3.50 per serving throughout the year. Fruits ranged from $0.20 to $1.69 per serving. Watermelons and Bananas appeared as the top two least expensive fruits per serving across nearly every region for both timeframes.
If you have any questions or are interested in receiving the report, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].
Analytics Study on Watermelon Price & Trade Response
In 2020, the Board funded a study with Information Resources Inc. (IRI) with the objective to leverage base, promoted and cross price elasticity estimates to help determine strategic direction and mitigate the volume and impacts of potential price increases or decreases for watermelon within the produce department. The focus was to build price elasticity and trade promotion response models that help the NWPB understand the following:
- What’s the role of watermelon price, relative to other price & trade drivers?
- What is the impact of short-term price reductions, measured as discount elasticities, and of merchandising, measured as lifts, for watermelon items?
- Is there substantial variation in shelf price elasticity across channels, key food retailers, and mass?
- Is there substantial variation in promotion response across channels, key food retailers, and mass for the watermelon category?
COVID-19 controls were a key factor in the 2020 study. Here is a summary:
- Excluded weeks that include abnormal/outlier behavior to ensure unbiased coefficients and lifts that are not influenced by irrational consumer purchase behavior associated with hoarding that took place regionally between March and April of 2020.
- Included turbulent weeks, but built a set of indicator variables at a store/week level to capture COVID-19 incidence. Weekly Panic Buy Indicator captured deviations in sales and did not allow the COVID-19 momentum impact price and promotional response.
- Display data collection was halted due to safety concerns between March and July of 2020. Display impact in those missing months was not explicitly measured, but calibration timeframes are 3x or more longer and that additional data will need to be relied upon for display lifts.
- Used Google Workplace Mobility data to understand the demand shifts due and consumers limited ability to leverage foodservice (restaurants, on-site cafeterias, etc.), supply chain constraints, and workforce underemployment.
Everyday Shelf Price
Response to everyday shelf pricing is relatively low in the U.S. retail landscape, while consumer response to price changes on whole watermelons is somewhat stronger than cut and minis. Consumer response to price change of cut and mini watermelon has decreased since the study in 2016. Base price thresholds do not present as a strong risk factor in the current pricing landscape for any watermelon type across all retail formats.
Implications
- Low price sensitivities present an opportunity to protect profit margin and to pass along cost of goods inflation with corresponding adjustments of price to retailer customers and consumers.
- Cut and mini watermelon are a low risk, low reward product set. Price adjustments will be more manageable, but trade promotions lifts will also be limited. Whole watermelon should be considered the “fighter” product worthy of promotional allocations to move inventory and drive incremental purchases.
- Inelastic price response does not translate into risk-free price actions as there will still be volume loss due to list price adjustments.
Competitive Pricing
While measurements indicated moderate to strong pricing effects between a variety of fruit types and watermelon sales, it is believed the strongest impacts are driven more by seasonal pricing of the various fruits rather than specific consumer switching. However, there are some very compelling price gaps between certain items that are worth managing to optimize watermelon sales levels:
Food: Mini Watermelons to Whole Watermelons -$2.20 (-5.5%) and -$2.70 (-5.5%)
Implications
- Most of the price gaps identified are within the watermelon category and can be used to optimize sales or margin contribution. Price gaps should be interpreted as the consumer’s perceived willingness to pay the difference.
- Understand that price gaps are not reciprocal and they cannot be expected to be equal when reversed. i.e. cut watermelon to cut apples $2.50 (-21.3%) does not equal cut apples to cut watermelon -$2.50 (-21.3%)
Promotional Price Response
Response to price discounting is generally low across all watermelon types and retail outlets with few exceptions. Temporary price reductions on cut watermelon are not effective. Lifts on all are significantly lower than reported in 2016. Specific promoted price threshold present could be used to help focus promotional efforts at the right price point to efficiently drive volume within the industry:
Food: Mini Watermelons @ $3.79 (+23.8%), Whole Watermelons @ $5.79 (+11.2%)
Implications
- Lower promotional price response is a symptom felt widely in the industry and should be considered in promotional planning.
- The identification of promoted price thresholds enables bonus incremental volume, boosting promotion return on investments that would otherwise go untapped and allows retailers to avoid deeper discount levels that cause consumer subsidization.
Quality Merchandising
Secondary Display appears to drive significant incremental lift. In food, feature ads perform very well for mini watermelons – ensure all promotions include feature support.
Implications
- When investing in quality merchandising or “plussing up” simple temporary price reductions, understand the estimated lifts associated with each vehicle and related retailer costs. These inputs allow for simple return on investment calculations and straight-forward decision making on trade event components.
- Reliable estimates of promotional lifts allows for partnership with retail customers on expected units. Collaborate on ideas to support on floor inventory levels including secondary locations in high traffic and complementary usage occasion aisles (lobby displays, seasonal aisle, alcohol department) is recommended.
- Retailer ad or feature support typically provides significant lift enhancement, but these lifts should be confirmed prior to committing trade allocations to ensure above breakeven returns on those investments.
If you have any questions on this study, please reach out to Mark Arney at [email protected].
